Thoughts on 2026

Out of the haze of the holidays, 2026 is starting to take shape.

“What’s past is prologue; what to come,
In yours and my discharge.”
— The Tempest, Act II, Scene I

ABC 7 invited me to discuss what 2026 may hold in politics. This seemed like a good reason to write down a few of my thoughts about the major themes likely to define the year ahead.

The 2028 Presidential Race Takes Shape

We have already seen the opening moves, but in 2026, the 2028 presidential race will begin to take shape.

Governor Gavin Newsom is releasing a book about his upbringing. Just today, Representative Ro Khanna took a shot at Newsom over corruption in California. In 2025, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez held rallies in packed halls alongside Senator Bernie Sanders; Vice President Kamala Harris released a book; former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg toured the right-wing podcast circuit; and Senator Mark Kelly raised his profile by sparring with the Trump administration.

I am willing to bet that someone we are not yet talking about emerges on the Democratic side over the next year.

For Republicans, the path is far more complicated. Potential candidates must balance placating Trump and appealing to the MAGA base while simultaneously proving they are electable in a general election. The recent attack on Venezuela has given Senator Marco Rubio a moment in the spotlight. Vice President J.D. Vance may be viewed as a front-runner, but one need only ask Mike Pence how Trump treats his vice presidents.

Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene is attempting to chart a path that is not entirely dependent on Trump while still appealing to the MAGA base. The theory of this effort is intriguing, and it will be worth watching how it plays out.

As with the Democratic field, I am not attempting to list the dozens of potential candidates, just those who have caught my attention.

California’s Governor’s Race Final Heats Up

The field is mostly set, voters will start paying attention, and we expect the candidates to approach the next five months with a sense of urgency to get into the top two.

Turnout for the governor election in 2018 was 37.5%, with 7.1 million votes cast; in 2022, it was 33.2%, with 7.2 million votes cast. We anticipate a roughly 35% turnout in 2026. This means about 8,000,000 votes cast. To get in the top two, the winning candidates will need between 20% and 25% of the vote, or roughly 2 million votes. There are many questions about how this race will play out, and I plan to write more about it over the next few weeks.

Trumpenomics Hits Home

In 2026, Americans will begin to feel the full impact of Trump’s federal budget bill. State and local budgets will be squeezed, and government services, including health care, food security, parks, police, fire, and education, will face cuts.

We are already seeing increased pressure to raise taxes, which in turn will create pressure to raise wages.

Taxpayers effectively subsidize the low wages paid by many large corporations. A significant share of SNAP recipients work full-time. 15.7 million workers participated in SNAP in the last year. According to CDC data, nearly 30 percent of working adults receive government-subsidized health care.

Federal budget cuts will hit low-wage workers hardest. They will also increase the cost of child care and education while reducing children’s and families’ access to opportunities.

The effects of tariffs will also begin to hit home. The Budget Lab at Yale University estimates that tariffs cost the average American household $1,197.50 annually. That figure is likely to rise as businesses exhaust the stockpiles they built earlier.

Tourism will continue to suffer. Canadians, one of the largest groups of foreign visitors, are not returning anytime soon. Even the World Cup will not be enough to rescue the tourism sector.

Affordability was the defining word in politics in 2025. In 2026, it will be joined by jobs and better pay.

Billionaire Backlash

Public tolerance for ostentatious displays of wealth by billionaires will erode further, particularly as the hardships created by Trumpenomics become more visible. On an NPR podcast, guests labeled billionaires the “Villains of the Year” for 2025, and that sentiment is only likely to grow.

Expect more proposals like California’s billionaire tax.

Even as a handful of ultra-wealthy figures, such as Mitt Romney, call for higher taxes, total billionaire wealth is projected to exceed $17 trillion, according to the UBS Billionaire Ambitions report. Meanwhile, the middle class continues to be squeezed by rising costs and stagnant wages.

Contrast remains the most powerful tool in political messaging. The image of the rich getting richer while everyone else struggles is potent.

Crime Fades as a Top Issue

Crime is falling rapidly. In 2025, the United States saw the largest single-year decline in homicides on record, along with declines in property crime. As a result, crime will recede as a dominant political issue, particularly when compared to the economy and employment.

It will not disappear—but it will move firmly into the second tier of voter concerns.

News Avoidance Increases

Americans are tuning out. More people are avoiding the news altogether or paying far less attention to it. According to Pew, in 2016, 51 percent of Americans followed the news “most or all of the time.” By 2025, that figure had dropped to 36 percent, and it is likely to fall further.

News disengagement creates fertile ground for authoritarianism. It is driven by exhaustion, frustration, and the belief that nothing ever changes.

Credibility, therefore, becomes a form of political currency.

In an attention economy, who is trusted on an issue matters more than who speaks the loudest. Lived experience outweighs messaging, and successful communication must align with what people are actually experiencing.

And finally:

Something will surprise us.